So what will happen the EU if the 26 Counties votes No on Thursday?

In one corner is Fianna Fail leader Brian Cowen.

Quoted by the French news agency AFP, Cowen claims that:

“It is imperative we don’t give the impression that we are turning our back on Europe” and that  a No vote will bring a “halt” to the union”.

This morning the Irish Star has a letter from Cowen giving his personal assurances as “the person who negotiated this treaty line by line”. In the same paper Foreign Affairs minister Micheal Martin is quoted saying it was “dishonest” to suggest the Lisbon Treaty could be renegotiated.

So what will happen, if there is a No vote on Thursday. I hope Brian Cowen and Michael Martin read the International Herald Tribune. An article this morning reporting on yesterday’s meeting of French President Sarkozy and German Chancellor tells us that:

“The eventuality of an Irish rejection would be a problem not only for the French presidency but for Europe,” Sarkozy said. “It’s for the Irish to decide on this, but what Madame Merkel and I have decided is that, whatever happens, the reaction will be a Franco-German one.”

The Herald Tribune article also focuses on the plight of Britain who are in the process of taking enabling Legislation for the Lisbon Treaty through the Commons and Lords. A No vote would put pressure on Brown to shelve the ratification process.

Most interesting in the Herald Tribune article is the conclusion that:

“The most likely option is that the treaty would be abandoned and that the EU would attempt to revise its current arrangements only when it prepares to admit the next nation due to join, Croatia, in 2011 or 2012.”

So the sky would not fall on our heads, the EU will not collapse or come to a halt. It will be business as usual.

An example of this ‘business as usual’ strategy and possibly the most interesting outcome of the meeting of Sarkozy and Merkel was their agreement for a Franco German policy in the EU on scaling back plans for tighter carbon emissions on luxury cars and German support for French proposals for a common EU defence policy.

Surely these are issues the Irish government should be focusing and informing the Irish voters on, including Angela Merkel’s proposals for a new EU financial regulator in the wake of the banking crisis gripping economies not just in Europe but across the world.

What are the bets that as the dust settles on the Lisbon Treaty campaign in coming days we won’t hear anything form the Fianna fail/Green Coalition on the real business of EU power broking. Could it be that we are not really at the heart of Europe after all?